Conflict Forecasts: Is Mozambique’s 20 years of peace at risk?


Mozambique is forecast to become a leading energy supplier following the discovery of huge gas reserves. But if the government fails to tackle a raft of challenges, it may succumb to the resource curse that has plagued many other resource-rich African countries.

Amid the economic optimism, the political stability that has helped to unlock Mozambique’s potential is under threat.  Tensions are once again mounting between the Frelimo government and the opposition Renamo party, who fought each other in the civil war.  After losing elections in late 2014, Renamo disputed the results of the poll and called for greater autonomy for six of the provinces where it had most supporters.  Outbreaks of violence between government troops and Renamo militia followed, with up to 3,000 fleeing the fighting into neighbouring Malawi since mid-2015.  The simmering conflict is unlikely to spark a civil war, but could lead to further political polarisation.

Read our analysis (on May 2013)